While most eyes are on the situation in the Red Sea and the diversions of the Suez Canal, “it is worth keeping an eye on what is happening in the world's other conflict point, the Panama Canal,” says Simon. Heaney, Senior Manager, Container Research, at Drewry.
As noted, monthly data from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) shows that while the total number of transits in all sectors of commercial maritime transport is decreasing, container ships are increasing their share as other sectors of maritime transport They increasingly avoid the interoceanic route. This has allowed container ships to generally maintain their daily average of recent years.
In an attempt to preserve levels in the canal basin, which supplies water to half of Panama's population, since March 2023, the ACP has progressively reduced capacity in the form of draft and daily transit restrictions. Higher than usual temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, coupled with the El Niño phenomenon and a delayed rainy season are the reasons why there are fewer ships using the canal and why some are forced to reduce weight of cargo in transit.
Impact of ACP measures
According to Heaney ACP data for December 2023 shows that monthly transits (both locks) decreased by approximately 25% compared to October 2023, or in numbers, only 746 transits compared to 1.002. In December 2022, there were 1.281 transits, so the latest figures represent a year-on-year drop of 42%.
Currently, vessels transiting Panama's Neopanamax locks are allowed maximum drafts of up to 13,4 m (15 m maximum under normal conditions), while vessels transiting Panamax locks have no draft limitations. draft from the limit of 24 m.
According to Heaney, it is estimated that container ships lose approximately 350 TEUs of capacity for every foot (0,3 m) of draft lost. For larger container ships capable of sailing through the Neopanamax locks, this could reduce payload by around 2.000 TEU.
On December 15, 2023, the ACP revoked a previous decision to again reduce the number of daily transits. Instead of reducing transit slots to 20 in January and 18 in February, the ACP increased the number of transits to 24/day on January 1, 2024, from 22. This is still well below the 35-40+ transits daily data observed before restrictions were imposed last year.
Impact on container ships
Container ships have mostly avoided long queues at the Panama Canal gates and costly transit auctions thanks to the pre-booking system, but there were enough operational delays for THE Alliance to announce a switch to Suez on three services Asia-USEC (this was before the Suez diversions).
Although the ACP has increased the number of daily transits to 24, that will continue to be a challenge for container ships, which saw transits per day fall to an average of 7,4 in both November and December, compared to 8,4 in October.
This is not far off the average daily container ship transits of 7,7 (FY2022) and 7,6 (FY2023); “Please note that ACP fiscal years run from October to September,” warns Heaney.
The share of container ships in total monthly transits increased to 30,6% in December, almost 5 percentage points more than in October. In the two previous fiscal years of the ACP, the participation of this sector was exactly 19,8%.
“Indeed, container ships are finding it easier to reserve space, as some other sectors (obviously bulk carriers) continue to abandon the route, in case shipping lines want more space,” concludes Heaney.
For Drewry, obviously the situation is very fluid and new draft restrictions could be announced at any time, but it seems that, at least for container ships, the Panama Canal bottleneck is proving much less restrictive than it could have been. else.
Source and more information: www.mundomaritimo.cl
